2008 Chargers Preview

The 2008 NFL season kicks off tomorrow so I best give my Charger preview/prediction/hope post.

And I will start out with this... I still have little to no faith in Norv Turner or Ted Cottrell even though they did take the Chargers to the AFC Championship last year...but for most Charger fans that was the least that team could have achieved without it being a disappointing season.  I say this after personally sitting in the stands and watch Adrian Peterson run all over the Chargers last year.  The Minnesota Vikings had only one offensive weapon last year and every other team in the league except San Diego and Chicago were able to stop Adrian Peterson.  It troubles me that the coaching staff could not find adjustments from taking a beating from basically one form of offense.  The same was with the Packers and the Chiefs loss when both those teams basically kept running the same post play and turned it into huge gains that resulted in their teams beating the Chargers.  But saying that, it clearly shows that Cottrell is probably more inept than Turner and I might agree to that assesment.  The Chargers, though, have so much talent on both sides of the ball they are able to overcome some of the coaching missteps and typically play fairly well.

So what's the deal with the 2008 edition of the Chargers?  Well, we'll start on the offensive side of the ball and for the most part, it is all intact from last year.  Of course the centerpiece of the Charger offense is future hall of famer, LaDainian Tomlinson who is coming off an injury from late last season.  Most of the offseason interviews I have heard with Tomlinson have him expressing how hungry he is this year to win a championship and that the critism of him unable to play in the AFC Championship game has only added fuel for the drive this season.  Phillip Rivers...who has this bizarre throwing motion and at times seems irratic...but to me, seems to have the mental fortitude to be a quarterback.  Phillip Rivers seems like a leader...that he is a guy that when something needs to get done, he will take it personally and get the team on his side.  I like the way he hits the wide open guy...easier said than done in the NFL.  Last year I don't recall how many times the Chargers had a guy that was literally WIDE OPEN and Rivers got the ball to him.  Watching other games, I find it hard to believe that other teams aren't in that same scenario more than a couple of times a game and it is a matter of whether or not the quarterback can find and hit that wide open receiver.  And speaking of receivers, Cris Chambers has already proved his worth on the Chargers and now it is time for Vincent Jackson to step up.  He did have a good playoffs last year but in the regular season he was just too streaky...he was the guy that would drop a pass when he was WIDE OPEN.

Now the defensive side... of course the big news this offseason has been the status of Shawne Merriman.  Merriman has said he is going to play this season and we'll see whether or not he can stand the test of a full season.    I almost expect Merriman to get hurt and his career essentially be over...and not that I want this to happen, just think it is what is going to happen.  I also think that is what the Chargers management thinks as well in signing his backup to a four year deal during the preseason.  But overall the Charger defense should remain a force...especially now that Antonio Cromartie will be playing a full season and starting.  Last season he wasn't starting until a few games into the season and once it was revealed that he is an outright stud he finally got the playing time he deserves.  With Quentin Jammer on the other side of the ball, the Chargers have 2 cornerbacks that I think are amongst the best in the league.  The defensive line remains solid with Castillo, Williams and Olshanksy add the linebackers of Phillips and Merriman/Tucker (his backup) it is a formidable front that should get plenty of pressure on the quarterback and big enough to shut down the run.

Now we look at the schedule... the AFC West is allegedly weak again this year, the Chargers play the NFC South with the game against the Saints in London, the AFC East and of course the other AFC division champs Indy and Pittsburgh.

So my record prediction: 

I think the Chargers should go 4-2 in their division games agains Oakland, KC and Denver.  Realistic, I think the Chargers should sweep the NFC south teams but a game in London and being NFC teams, I could see the Chargers dropping one there to go 3-1 against the NFC South.  Of course the AFC East has the Patriots but the rest of the division doesn't seem as formidable... I think the Chargers beat the Pats but then likely lose a road game to Buffalo or something like that...but end up 3-1 against the AFC East.  The Chargers have owned Indy in the past few years so I think they continue that trend especially since they finally get to play Indy in San Diego but the Pittsburgh game is in Pitt so they will likely split between those teams to go 1-1.

So calculating the numbers, I have the Chargers at 11-5 and I think that is a reasonable expectation for the this team... I think most other fans and many media folks will expect the Chargers with a better record, but I want to put out a reasonable expectation and I think that is reasonable.  Of course regardless of what the Chargers regular season record will be, this season will be gauged on the playoffs.  The Chargers are expected to make the AFC Championship again and anything less will likely be a disappointment and the window of opportunity beginning to shut on this team's current veterans a chance to win a championship.