NFL Season Kicks Off - Charger Predictions

Tonight is the night many a sports fan in America loves...it is, literally, Christmas in September.  The NFL season opener is tonight.  For some reason, having the first game on a day other than Sunday just seems weird to me...but that's today's NFL for you.  If I get distracted, which is fairly easy, I may even forget there's a game on tonight...of course if it was the Chargers, that wouldn't be the case.  Instead, I get to wait until, literally, the last game of the weekend, 9:30 PM (my time) on Monday night to start watching the San Diego Chargers 2012 campaign begin as they play the Raiders.  And with that, here is my "predictions" for the Chargers and this season...

To recap, last season I had the Chargers going 9-7 and not make the playoffs. The Chargers actually finished at 8-8 and missed the playoffs.  So, I'm going to pat myself on the back and think to myself that being one game off isn't too bad in the prediction business.

So, let's recap the method to my madness in making my prediction for this season and if you are a frequent reader of my blog, then you probably already know where I am going...

And that is first and foremost and has to be always at the foundation of every discussion involving the San Diego Chargers this season and that is Norv Turner.  I sound like a broken record but I truly believe that as long as Norv Turner is the head coach this team will not do much of anything except disappoint.  I think this season he has primed this team to disappoint more so than any other year he has been coach and with his history with the Chargers, he is certainly "trending down".

Phillip Rivers looked horrible last year with no receivers, the Chargers still don't have any quality receivers.  The Chargers offensive line is weak and they have no depth and, as of right now, no left tackle.  Antonio Gates, as great as he is and as much of a warrior as he is, has been battered and injured for most of the past 4 seasons but still may be Rivers' only receiving option.  The run game, with a poor offensive line, will probably be non-existent as well, forcing the Chargers to become a one dimensional, pass only team.  Being a pass only team with competent receivers and a good quarterback is not a bad thing the NFL, unfortunately for the Chargers they don't have any competent receivers with the exception of Gates who is a tight end.

The defense, essentially the same as last season with a couple of additions.  The secondary is horrible.  Jammer has lost a step and because he is the only guy that can actually play man-to-man is often left alone and he gets preyed on.  Cason and Gilchrist are horrible and will get burned routinely.  The defensive line hasn't shown any muscle and is controlled at the line of scrimmage by even the most mediocre NFL offenses.

The special teams for the Chargers will likely continue to lack for the Chargers.  The Chargers have a decent field goal kicker in Kaeding, who can kick a field goal from a country mile as long as it is during the regular season...once the playoffs start, Kaeding is no longer a factor and instead is a detriment to the Chargers.  The Chargers haven't had anyone returning kicks or punts that is effective for some time and often have poor tackling and poor coverage so opponents usually get a short field to work with when they gain possession of the ball.

So now let's look at the schedule and see how the Chargers are going to do...

Just quickly glancing at the schedule I think there is an almost obvious break in the schedule where the Chargers season goes from easy to hard and that is at week 10...

If the Chargers can post as many wins as they can the first 10 weeks they may actually be able to "sneak" into the playoffs...those first 9 games (and a bye) are: @Oakland, Tennessee, Atlanta, @Kansas City, @New Orleans, Denver, (bye), @Cleveland, Kansas City and @Tampa Bay.  If the Chargers were even respectable I would think they would get out of that stretch at 6-3, maybe even 7-2 ... but knowing the Chargers under Norv Turner I know a few things...first, the Chargers suck on the road even to bad teams.  Second, the Chargers can beat bad teams at home...sometimes.  So with that knowledge here's how I  break it down, the first nine games: At Oakland...the Chargers use to own the Raiders, now the Raiders are just as inept as the Chargers.  Both these teams seem to lay down to the other when on the road and I think that is the same again this season.  Tennessee at home may be a win, but I don't guarantee it.  Atlanta will run Micheal Turner down the Chargers throats until the deep bomb to Roddy White runs the score up.  Under Marty Schottenheimer the Chargers could beat the Chiefs in KC, under Norv Turner the games are usually an embarrassment for the Bolts as a KC team that lookes inept against other teams runs wild on the Chargers.  At New Orleans...this won't even be close at half time.  Drew Brees will either get benched before the start of the 3rd quarter or break the single game record for passing yards against the Chargers. Then Peyton Manning comes to San Diego...the Chargers know Manning and this is a game the Chargers have a chance and may eek out a 3 point win.  On the road to Cleveland, this game may be a winnable road game for the Chargers, but likely will be close.  Against KC at home, the Chargers will find a way to win that game to "stay in the hunt" in the AFC West.  The road game against Tampa Bay will bring the Bolts right back to Earth as they Chargers can't beat anyone on the east coast in their stadium.

So, 9 games in the Chargers are 3-6 and now get to the "meat" of their schedule...

So the next 7 games...Chargers at Denver...lose.  Manning, if he did indeed lose the first meeting against the Chargers, will make the proper adjustments and beat the Chargers with little effort.  Baltimore comes to San Diego and their defense alone will likely be able to beat the Chargers.  Ray Lewis will look like the all-pro he once was, something he won't show in most other games but does so against Norv Turner coached teams, and a healthy dose of Ray Rice will be all the Ravens need to destroy the Chargers at home.  The Bengals come to town next... a team that knocked the Chargers out of the playoffs 2 seasons ago when the Bengals had nothing to play for and the Chargers had everything to play for.  The Bengals have gotten younger and better the Chargers have gotten worse.  Bengals win.  Chargers then travel to Pittsburgh a team that they, seemingly, only have beaten once and that was in the 1994-5 AFC Championship game.  I don't expect the Chargers to be even competitive against a well disciplined team that the Steelers will be.  Chargers former defensive coordinator and now Carolina head coach  Ron Rivera comes to town with this explosive Cam Newton.  Rivera, with a defensive background, will pick the Chargers apart and embarrass his former bosses.  Chargers travel to play the New York Jets...see the comments regarding east coast teams and also factor in that the Jets, regardless of good or not, have an arrogance that the Chargers players cower under. Jets win a close one.  And, like the past few seasons, the Chargers start the season against the Raiders and then end the season against the Raiders and like the last few seasons the game won't matter for the Chargers and the Chargers will just crush the Raiders.  Norv Turner and GM AJ Smith will be retained as hope for next season already has begun.

But as you can see from my observations, I have the Chargers going 4-12.  I have said that 6-10 is hopeful, but I really don't see 6 wins on the schedule.  Instead I see a poor defense giving up big plays and lots of points. I see an offense that will likely be playing from behind and have trouble maintaining ball control and putting points on the board.  I continue to see deficiency in the special teams game.  But most of all, I see a team that doesn't look like it is NFL caliber.

I hope I am wrong.  I hope I can come here each week and write about what an amazing game the Chargers had in a victory over their latest opponent.  I hope that in January I am writing about how excited I was for the playoffs to start.  Oh, and how I wish I could be hopeful...I wish I could think..."Hey, this could be the year." but that isn't even a consideration at this point.  Like the broken record I am and like last season, Norv Turner has removed any hope I may have had for this year a long time ago.  Because of Norv Turner and AJ Smith, I have ZERO hope for the Chargers succeeding this season.  They know their jobs are suppose to be on the line this season, but that will have little impact on how the team plays.  I don't think there is a player on this team that will "put it all on the line" for Norv or this team.  I've always said that Phillip Rivers is a "winner" a guy that hates to lose and I think that is still true.  Unfortunately for him, he is stuck with a loser, Norv Turner, and that's the guy who's driving the car to loser land.