2009-10 Chargers Preview And Prediction

The San Diego Chargers will be kicking off the 2009-10 season tonight against the Raiders so I can't stall much longer in making my predictions for the season...

Last year I had the Chargers going 11-5, stating that was "reasonable expectations." Then the season started totally out-of-control and the Chargers rally to salvage an 8-8 record, win the AFC West and beat Indy in the playoffs...still, not the end result many thought the Chargers should have achieved...

Let's start out on the defensive side of the ball...I can almost cut and paste my comments from last season regarding Merriman...he is coming off an injury and depending on how well he does will determine whether or not he will be a Charger after this season. I had hoped Merriman would be an impact player and I continue to have that hope. But, since his positive steroid test Merriman hasn't been the same player he was when he first started...regardless, though, he is a good enough player that even if he isn't the sack machine that he once was his presence, alone, makes the Charger defense better... I'm hoping Shaun Phillips and Louis Castillo have a better year...when Merriman was playing 2 season ago (and prior) those two players seemed to be able to make more of an impact.

The offensive side of the ball remains to be the Chargers strength, in my opinion. Phillip Rivers emerged last season to be exactly what I had hoped he would be...a top-caliber quarterback and a competent leader. I've said it before and I will say it again...Rivers is a 'winner' ... he doesn't like to lose and having a player with that type of mentality are the ones I like watching because they will contemplate sacrificing them self so that the team can succeed.

Now we can focus our attention on the greatest Charger to ever wear the uniform, LaDainian Tomlinson...many think that if LT doesn't have a good campaign this season that he won't be in San Diego much longer. I had high hopes for LT last season because he had came out and said the right things, that all the negative press and that type of speculation was just "fuel for the fire" and he was coming back and going to return to form...instead LT looked very pedestrian all season and ended up injured, again, by the time the playoffs started. Darren Sproles has been able to be a more than capable back-up to LT and unless LT does step up his performance this season I don't see how the Chargers can continue to pay for 2 top-tier backs and it will force them to decide between the two of them.

One of my "usual" statements that I like to qualify my predictions is for any team to be successful they need to win the battles at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. This is something I was not impressed with at all from the Chargers last season and from the preseason games I have watched this season, it seems to remain an issue. When LT and the Chargers had their unbelievable season in 2006 the Chargers controlled the line of scrimmage...they had a great pass rush, good rush defense, plenty of pass protection and LT great run blocking...all the key ingredients for a successful season. I will be particularly paying attention to the run blocking and the pass rush this season...something that did not seem to exist at all last season for the Chargers...

So here's my predictions for the Chargers this year...

First let me bitch about the early bye week the Chargers have this season...which seems like a regular occurrence for the Chargers...if they aren't being shipped off to England it seems as if the Chargers are always in the first batch of bye weeks...this year it is week 5 the Chargers will have their bye which is the week of Oct. 11 ... I've said it once and I'll say it again...any bye before November sucks...

So on the Chargers have their AFC West opponents twice, the NFC East, AFC North and the other AFC Division winners (Miami and Tennessee).

The Chargers first 4 games before the bye are @Raiders, Ravens, Dolphins and @Pittsburgh ... With the exception of the Raiders the Chargers lost to the other 3 teams last year. The Ravens didn't impress me with their performance against the Chiefs yesterday and the Chiefs were playing without their starting quarterback...and maybe the loss of defensive coordinator, Rex Ryan, for the Ravens may be their biggest offseason loss. I think the Chargers should go 2-2 in the first four weeks...

After the bye the Chargers come out and play all three division opponents in a row...Denver, @Kansas City and then their final regular season game with the Raiders and if we even extrapolate the schedule a bit further, the Chargers would then play @Giants and Philadelphia before they then finish their divisional games with Denver and KC ...and it isn't even December yet! Like last year the AFC West is suppose to be weak...in fact many say even weaker with the Broncos not looking good, the Chiefs continuing to suck and the Raiders continuing their current trend of being awful... I think this stretch is a key stretch for the Chargers and they could have the west all but won if they do well in October and November ... I like to think they can sweep the division but don't expect it...I think the Chargers could go 5-2 during this stretch making them 7-4 with 5 to play...

They play @Browns, @Dallas, Cincinnati, @Titans and Redskins... 3 of their last 5 games on the road...I think they win 1 out of 3 and take the final 2 home games ... with the Chargers then finishing up with a 10-6 season but I think 9 and 7 is more likely and that should be enough to win the AFC West again but probably not good enough for a first round bye in the playoffs...

The Chargers continue to be a team that has the potential to be a team that a person could see them get into double-digit wins...but the Chargers continue to have a losing record against playoff caliber teams in recent years and I think the Chargers are likely to remain one of those teams that can beat bad teams but never be able to put it together to upset the more established and consistent teams in the NFL (ie: Pittsburgh, New England) and especially when it matters. It is the NFL and anything can happen and you can't really write any team off and the Chargers are a team that should at the very least be in the playoffs and then anything goes from there...