Thursday, September 05, 2013

2013 Charger Prediction

It is about that time again...time for football fans to wake from their 8 month slumber and begin to follow their favorite team on their quest to win the Super Bowl.  For Charger fans it is no exception, me included.  I am a fan of the Chargers...always have been and always will be...yes, for some reason I can't be shaken from my loyalty to this team no matter how many disappointments they seem to deliver.  Yes, I am loyal to the Chargers and will likely watch every one of their games this season but I am also a realist.  I am not the "homer" fan that thinks the team is Super Bowl bound each and every year...I see their flaws...and their strengths and I try to gauge my expectations of the team based on my own observations and not let too much of the "mainstream" media dictate my own take on the team.  So with that...let's get into it and here is my initial thoughts of the San Diego Chargers and how well they will do in the 2013 NFL Season.

First off let's start out with the new GM and new coach...Tom Telesco and Mike McCoy.  I've already made some comments about both with a basically a wait and see attitude.  And I'll stick by that...the only negative I have really commented on was that I don't think McCoy may have been the best candidate for the coaching position because he was the offensive coordinator from Denver where Peyton Manning does most of the play calling...oh sure he may have helped with plays and whatever, but when it came to making the "call" at the line of scrimmage, Manning does that.  But offense is only one facet of the game and if he is able to at least manage the game, he will be better than Norv Turner ever was.  If I don't see a single delay of game penalty after taking a timeout this entire season, he already has one-upped Norv who seemed to get that type of penalty on a regular basis.  So if anything, the coaching for the Chargers is an intangible, at this point.

Now with the offense and the focal point of any team's offense is the quarterback.  Phillip Rivers...at one time I had him labeled as a winner and a guy that I loved on the Chargers.  For the past two seasons Rivers has completely erased that and is nothing but a liability now.  I think this story details it nicely... up until two years ago, Rivers was a very proficient QB in the fourth quarter, able to put together game winning drives...but in the last two years has been nothing but awful...turning the ball over 22 times in the fourth quarter and 2-19 in game winning drives.  Last season I noticed that Rivers doesn't seem to have the accuracy or the arm strength for the deep ball, allowing defenses to play closer to the line of scrimmage and even let receivers get downfield because they would be able to adjust and defend any deep pass because it would rarely be thrown and if so, likely off the mark of the intended Charger receiver.  Hope amongst fans of the Chargers is that Rivers play improves with a new coach...but as of right now, that is only hope.

One of the reasons, some Charger fans cite, for Rivers poor play the past two seasons has been the offensive line...and I agree that the offensive line was horrible.  The Chargers have made some moves this season to try and improve it, and it likely has improved, but it hasn't improved enough.  The other problem with the Chargers offensive line is not only is it probably sub-standard by NFL standards, the Chargers don't have any depth...so if/when any of the starting offensive linemen get hurt, their replacement is likely a big dropoff...and it isn't just the offensive line, the entire Charger team lacks depth at almost every position.

So let's move to the skills positions...the Chargers still have Antonio Gates who is still a gamer.  He looks like he is in great shape for this season and I hope he is because he is likely the Chargers best receiver.  As for the wide receivers on the Chargers...they are, for the most part, an unproven, injury prone group.  Sure Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Brown have had some memorable plays but as soon as you get excited about either they are on the sideline injured.  Speaking of injuries, let's move on to Ryan Mathews, the Chargers starting runningback...who, in the past, seems like if he isn't hurt is fumbling the ball.  Hope (again) is that he shakes both of those labels, stays healthy and doesn't fumble the ball.  But even when Mathews was given the ball, he has never been able to break off a big run...and I do believe he still carries the stat of not having a run of longer than 20 yards in his career.

Ok, now let's go to the defense...

I think the defense will be improved this year...the addition of Dwight Freeney could really make a difference.  The Chargers have had close to no pass rush with very few sacks over the past two seasons and I think Freeney will help improve in that area for starters.  But the problem with the Chargers defense is what it always has been...the secondary.  I do like Weddle and I think he is good...but the rest of the db's for the Chargers are suspect.  Gilchrist, who played a bit of CB replacing Cason for a while, was awful.  If the Chargers can get a pass rush with only 4 or 5 guys, the secondary will look better...but if the Chargers have to send more pass rushers and leave the corners and safeties to cover all the receivers...well, that's probably a big problem for this team.  And like last season, it seems like the Chargers have a lot of linebackers...but none of them seem to be that good.  Manti Te'o, who the Chargers drafted, has been injured for almost all of the preseason...and to me, looks undersized...I'll wait to see what he does on the field before I cast final judgement on him, but compared to what NFL linebackers typically look like, he does not seem to fit that mold.

So now it is time to make my predictions and like in the past, I like to list out the games on the schedule and base my prediction on that...

Couple of things though... first, I think the first 6 games of the NFL season are a crapshoot and essentially the new preseason.  A team that isn't doing well after the first six weeks isn't necessarily out of anything and a team that is tearing it up after 6 games doesn't mean they are the best in the league...sure you don't want to go 0 and 6 but even if you do, it isn't the end of the world and teams can come back and still make a run at the playoffs...ideally, if a team can be 3-3 after 6 games (even 2-4 ain't that bad) they still have time and opportunity to make the playoffs.  Next, the Chargers have been horrible on the road the past couple years...regardless of opponents (see Cleveland last year).  If the new coaching regime in San Diego can change that trend, that would be another bright spot for the Chargers...

Chargers first four games are a doozey...they start out at home against the Texans...(Sidenote: as the last game of week one and I am already cringing at the thought that Cris Berman is probably going to call that game and he is HORRIBLE!) then they go on the road to play the Eagles and Titans before coming back home to face the Cowboys.  I think they are 1-3...the Texans have two proven weapons, Andre Johnson and Arian Foster both should have little issues with the Chargers...The Eagles will be healthy for a few weeks and the Chargers stink on the road so they take the full brunt of the Eagles, the Chargers have a chance to eek out a win in Tennessee...I think and the Cowboys game could be a coin flip...the Chargers could be 2-2...but I'm thinking 1-3...Next four games...3 are on the road and only one at home..at Oakland, host Indy, at Jacksonville, bye and then at Washington...the Chargers could seriously be 2-2 out of that stretch with wins over Oakland and Jacksonville...but the Chargers stink on the road...I'm thinking they lose one of the games between Oakland and Jacksonville, lose to Indy and Washington and go 1-3 and are 2-6 overall at the midway point.  The schedule doesn't get much easier in the second half...starting out with a home game against the Broncos, they then travel to Miami and Kansas City before returning home to play the Bengals.  I hate the Broncos and I hate it when the Broncos beat the Chargers...but the Broncos will do just that, the Chargers can't win on the road, the Bengals are many people's Super Bowl pick (what?) ... Chargers hit a dry spell, go 0-4 and are 2-10 at this point.  Bright side...3 of the last four games are at home...Giants, at Denver, Oakland and KC round out the schedule...Chargers win their final two games ...4-12...is my initial pick, but I think the Chargers could win 1 of the games against the Cowboys, Jags and Dolphins and maybe, like Pittsburgh last season, they surprise some team that they shouldn't have beaten...so my final prediction for the Chargers is 5-11, possibly 6-10 if they get an upset win ... yes...it is that sad, no playoffs and no hope for the playoffs early in the season...I hope, like I say every year...that I am proven wrong...but if you look at my last two seasons predictions I have been off by only 1 game.

The Chargers just are too thin and lack talent in a lot of areas.  McCoy has his work cut out for him and so does this team.  The Chargers have already been riddled with injuries and if any of their "key" players suffer some injury, it will only compound the problems for this team.  I don't see much firepower on offense...if they can simply manage the game and not turn the ball over, the defense may have the opportunity to make some plays and keep the Chargers competitive...but that has yet to be seen.

In the end, I hope for the best as I prepare for the worst....I would love nothing more than post an entry in January as to how I was wrong in gauging this team from the start and how they surprised me at how well they are doing....

For those who are interested, I do tweet during most Charger games (@SayOw) so follow/comment/heckle me if you want.

GO CHARGERS!


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